## The Critical Minerals Shaping the Clean Energy Transition Rare earth elements have emerged as the most strategically important minerals of the 21st century, essential for permanent magnets in electric vehicle motors, wind turbines, defense systems, and consumer electronics. The global rare earth market reached $6.2 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to $15.8 billion by 2030, driven by accelerating demand from the clean energy transition. Yet production remains concentrated in China, which controls 69% of mining and 90% of refining capacity, creating supply chain vulnerabilities that governments and corporations are racing to address. ## Global Rare Earth Reserves by Country The following table summarizes rare earth oxide reserves by country based on 2025 United States Geological Survey data: | Rank | Country | Reserves (Million Metric Tons) | Percentage of Global Total | |------|---------|-------------------------------|---------------------------| | 1 | China | 44.0 | 49% | | 2 | Brazil | 21.0 | 23% | | 3 | India | 6.9 | 8% | | 4 | Australia | 5.7 | 6% | | 5 | Russia | 3.8 | 4% | | 6 | Vietnam | 3.5 | 4% | | 7 | United States | 1.9 | 2% | | 8 | Greenland | 1.5 | 2% | | 9 | Others | 2.0 | 2% | | Total | Global | 90.0 | 100% | China holds nearly half the world's proven reserves at 44 million metric tons, concentrated primarily in the Bayan Obo Mining District of Inner Mongolia, the world's largest rare earth deposit containing an estimated 100 million metric tons of ore. Brazil ranks second with 21 million metric tons of reserves, representing 23% of global resources, though production has lagged significantly behind reserve potential. ## Global Rare Earth Production by Country The 2024 production statistics reveal the dramatic gap between reserves and actual mining output: | Rank | Country | 2024 Production (Metric Tons) | Percentage of Global Output | |------|---------|------------------------------|---------------------------| | 1 | China | 270,000 | 69% | | 2 | United States | 45,000 | 12% | | 3 | Myanmar | 31,000 | 8% | | 4 | Australia | 13,000 | 3% | | 5 | Thailand | 13,000 | 3% | | 6 | India | 2,900 | 1% | | 7 | Russia | 2,500 | 1% | | 8 | Vietnam | 300 | <1% | | 9 | Brazil | 20 | <1% | | Total | Global | 390,000 | 100% | Global production increased from 350,000 metric tons in 2023 to 390,000 metric tons in 2024, driven by expanded Chinese output and emerging production from Thailand and Nigeria. China's dominance extends beyond mining to control approximately 90% of global refining and processing capacity, meaning even rare earths mined elsewhere must typically travel to China for separation into individual elements. ## Top Rare Earth Mining Companies China Northern Rare Earth dominates the industry with an $86.7 billion market capitalization. The company controls the Bayan Obo Mining District and operates the world's largest production facilities for rare earth raw materials and functional products. Location: Baotou, Inner Mongolia, China Founded: 1961 Stock: 600111.SS (Shanghai) Website: [northernrareearth.com](https://www.northernrareearth.com) [China Northern Rare Earth](https://www.northernrareearth.com) produces rare earth concentrates, magnetic minerals, carbonates, power battery materials, and LED components. The company's vertically integrated operations span mining, separation, refining, and manufacturing of finished products. Annual production capacity exceeds the combined output of all non-Chinese producers, establishing absolute market leadership. ## MP Materials MP Materials operates Mountain Pass, the only large-scale rare earth mining and processing facility in North America, producing 45,000 metric tons of rare earth concentrate annually. Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, United States Founded: 2017 (acquired Mountain Pass) Market Cap: $3.9 billion Stock: NYSE:MP Website: [mpmaterials.com](https://www.mpmaterials.com) [MP Materials](https://www.mpmaterials.com) achieved record production of 1,300 tons of separated neodymium-praseodymium oxide in 2024, representing 1% of global refined output. The United States Department of Defense acquired a 15% equity stake in July 2025, investing $400 million plus a $150 million loan to accelerate domestic supply chain development. The company's Fort Worth, Texas facility targets 1,000 tons per year of finished NdFeB magnets by late 2025. A landmark $500 million supply agreement with Apple will provide rare earth magnets for iPhone production, reducing dependence on Chinese suppliers. ## Lynas Rare Earths Lynas Rare Earths operates as the largest rare earth producer outside China, contributing 4% of global refined production through integrated mining and processing operations. Location: Perth, Australia Founded: 1983 Market Cap: $4.8 billion Stock: ASX:LYC Website: [lynasrareearths.com](https://www.lynasrareearths.com) [Lynas Rare Earths](https://www.lynasrareearths.com) mines the Mt Weld deposit in Western Australia, the world's highest-grade rare earth ore body with 1.64 million metric tons of reserves. Processing facilities in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia and Kuantan, Malaysia produce 16,000 to 19,000 tons of neodymium-praseodymium oxide annually. A $258 million Department of Defense contract funds construction of a heavy rare earth separation facility in Texas, addressing critical shortages of dysprosium and terbium for high-performance magnets. The company expanded mineral resources by 92% and reserves by 63% in 2024, confirming a 20-year mine life. ## Iluka Resources Iluka Resources is constructing Australia's first fully integrated rare earth refinery, positioning the company to capture value across the entire supply chain. Location: Perth, Australia Founded: 1954 Market Cap: $5.0 billion Stock: ASX:ILU Website: [iluka.com](https://www.iluka.com) [Iluka Resources](https://www.iluka.com) received AU$400 million in Australian government funding to develop the Eneabba refinery in Western Australia, which will process rare earth feedstock into separated oxides without requiring shipment to China. The project addresses the critical processing bottleneck constraining Western supply chain development. Iluka's existing mineral sands operations provide feedstock containing rare earth bearing minerals, enabling vertical integration from mining through refining. ## Energy Fuels Energy Fuels is developing rare earth production capacity at its White Mesa Mill in Utah, leveraging uranium processing infrastructure to extract rare earths from mineral sands. Location: Lakewood, Colorado, United States Founded: 2006 Market Cap: $1.0 billion Stock: NYSE:UUUU Website: [energyfuels.com](https://www.energyfuels.com) [Energy Fuels](https://www.energyfuels.com) completed the acquisition of Base Resources, an Australian mineral sands producer, in October 2024, securing rare earth feedstock for commercial production. The White Mesa Mill facility conducted pilot-scale heavy rare earth separation in 2024, targeting commercial output by late 2026. The company's dual uranium and rare earth production creates operational synergies while diversifying revenue streams. ## Market Forecast 2025-2030 The rare earth elements market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate between 5.8% and 11.7% through 2030, depending on methodology: | Forecast Source | 2024 Market Size | 2030 Projection | CAGR | |-----------------|-----------------|-----------------|------| | Grand View Research | $3.95 billion | $6.28 billion | 8.6% | | MarketsandMarkets | $5.14 billion | $7.39 billion | 6.2% | | GIR Strategic Report | $8.1 billion | $15.8 billion | 11.7% | | Mordor Intelligence (Volume) | 196,600 tons | 260,400 tons | 5.8% | Permanent magnets represent 41% of the market and the fastest-growing segment, driven by electric vehicle traction motors and offshore wind turbines. Neodymium demand is expanding at 9.2% annually as automakers transition from internal combustion engines to battery electric vehicles. Each electric vehicle requires 1 to 2 kilograms of neodymium magnets, while wind turbines contain several hundred kilograms per megawatt of generating capacity. ## Electric Vehicle Demand Projections Rare earth demand from electric vehicle motors exceeded 830,000 tons in 2024 and continues accelerating with the global EV transition: | Element | 2017 EV Demand | 2030 Forecast | Growth | |---------|---------------|---------------|--------| | Neodymium | 582-1,162 tons | 20,000-40,000 tons | 700% | | Dysprosium | 180-360 tons | 6,000-13,000 tons | 2,600% | Permanent magnet synchronous motors dominate the electric vehicle market due to superior efficiency and power density compared to induction alternatives. These motors require neodymium-iron-boron magnets enhanced with dysprosium to maintain magnetic properties at operating temperatures exceeding 160 degrees Celsius. Heavy rare earth elements including dysprosium and terbium represent the most critical supply constraint, with China controlling over 90% of production. ## Emerging Producer Nations Several countries with substantial reserves are developing mining capacity to diversify global supply chains. Brazil holds the world's second-largest reserves at 21 million metric tons but produced only 20 tons in 2024. The National Mining Agency has identified 27 rare earth projects across 17 companies and seven states. Investment is projected to increase 49% by 2029. Serra Verde in Goias state commenced commercial production in 2024 as Brazil's first operating rare earth mine. Australian companies Viridis Mining and Meteoric Resources are developing ionic clay deposits in Minas Gerais, targeting production within 2 to 3 years with $280 million in planned investment. India ranks third in global reserves with 6.9 million metric tons but produces only 2,900 tons annually. The government launched the National Critical Mineral Mission with 163 billion rupees ($1.95 billion) in funding for rare earth development. Indian Rare Earths Limited plans to triple refined output by 2032, reaching 13,000 tons of rare earth oxide. A production-linked incentive scheme allocates 73.5 billion rupees ($880 million) for domestic magnet manufacturing. ## Recycling and Urban Mining Rare earth recycling represents an emerging opportunity to supplement primary mining, though current recovery rates remain below 1% globally: | Company | Technology | Capacity | Funding | |---------|------------|----------|---------| | Cyclic Materials | Chemical extraction | 500 tons/year, scaling to 43,000 by 2035 | $100 million+ | | Noveon Magnetics | Magnet-to-magnet | 2,000 tons/year | $35 million DoD | | ReElement Technologies | Hydrometallurgical | Toll processing at $25-35/kg | Private | | HyProMag USA | Hydrogen processing | 1,041 tons/year target | CoTec Holdings | Recycling technology can recover 85% to 95% of rare earth elements from end-of-life magnets, hard drives, and electronic waste. Cyclic Materials received recognition as a 2025 Climate Tech Company to Watch from MIT Technology Review for its hub-and-spoke collection and processing model. Noveon Magnetics produces EcoFlux magnets from recycled feedstock, achieving 90% energy savings compared to virgin material processing. The recycling market is projected to reach $1 billion by 2030 and could supply 25% of global demand by 2035. ## Investment Requirements and Timeline The International Energy Agency estimates $500 billion to $600 billion in mining and refining capital investment is required between 2025 and 2040 to meet clean energy demand under stated policy scenarios. Non-Chinese projects face significant economic challenges, requiring neodymium-praseodymium oxide prices above $60 per kilogram for viability. Current prices have fallen below this threshold, threatening Western supply chain development. Building mine-to-magnet supply chains outside China requires 10 to 15 years according to industry experts, though government support is accelerating timelines. The United States Department of Defense targets a complete domestic supply chain for defense applications by 2027. China's market share could decline from 90% to 75% by 2028 if planned projects achieve production targets. ## Company Comparison Table | Company | Country | Market Cap | 2024 Production | Key Asset | Strategy | |---------|---------|------------|-----------------|-----------|----------| | China Northern Rare Earth | China | $86.7B | 270,000 tons | Bayan Obo | Integrated producer | | MP Materials | USA | $3.9B | 45,000 tons | Mountain Pass | Mine-to-magnet | | Lynas Rare Earths | Australia | $4.8B | 13,000 tons | Mt Weld | Global processing | | Iluka Resources | Australia | $5.0B | Development | Eneabba | Refinery build | | Energy Fuels | USA | $1.0B | Pilot | White Mesa | Uranium synergy | ## Strategic Outlook Through 2030 The rare earth industry faces a potential 60-kiloton supply shortage by 2035, representing 30% of projected demand if non-Chinese projects fail to materialize. China's April 2025 export restrictions on seven rare earth elements including dysprosium, terbium, and scandium intensified supply security concerns. The United States and Australia announced an $8.5 billion critical minerals partnership in October 2025, including $3 billion in immediate investment and price floor guarantees for key elements. Western governments are deploying Defense Production Act authorities, equity investments, and bilateral trade agreements to accelerate supply chain development. Corporate commitments from Apple, General Motors, and defense contractors provide demand certainty for emerging producers. The transition from Chinese dependency to diversified supply will reshape the global rare earth industry through 2030 and beyond. ## Conference and Industry Events

Clean energy and critical minerals professionals can explore these developments at upcoming events. Impact Investing World Forum 2026 (London) brings together ESG leaders, climate finance experts, and sustainable investment professionals focused on green technology and rare earth supply chains. AI World Congress 2026 (June 23-24, London, 250+ delegates) features sessions on AI applications in clean energy and materials optimization.