Telecoms market size: Where growth is coming from in 2024–2028

Global market size: steady scale, shifting mix

In the Telecoms sector, The telecoms sector remains one of the largest corners of the global digital economy, with service revenues broadly in the mid-trillion range and a stable low-single-digit growth profile. Mobile operators alone generated roughly $1.1 trillion in revenue last year, according to industry research compiled in the GSMA’s latest Mobile Economy report, which underscores how mobility continues to anchor the sector’s topline according to recent research. When fixed broadband and enterprise connectivity are layered in, total telecom service revenues climb substantially higher, keeping the market’s overall scale and cash generation robust even as competition and regulation compress unit pricing in mature markets.

Yet, the composition of that revenue is evolving. Growth is increasingly skewed toward higher-speed access, enterprise solutions, and platform adjacencies (security, edge computing, IoT), while legacy voice and messaging continue to decline. The sector’s defensiveness—recurring subscriptions and essential infrastructure—remains intact, but investors are tracking where incremental dollars will be earned as traffic surges and pricing power varies by region and segment.

Demand drivers: 5G, fiber, and the traffic flywheel

The data demand story is still accelerating. 5G adoption cleared a major milestone in 2023, with global subscriptions surpassing 1.5 billion and set to expand to several billion later this decade as coverage widens and devices become more affordable, Ericsson’s Mobility Report shows. That adoption wave translates into higher usage per subscriber and new revenue opportunities in fixed wireless access, premium tiers, and enterprise use cases, even as headline ARPU growth remains uneven across markets.

At the same time, the addressable base of connected users continues to rise, underpinning the long-term demand curve. The International Telecommunication Union estimates that 5.4 billion people were using the internet in 2023, leaving a meaningful runway for digital inclusion and mobile broadband upgrades in emerging economies, according to ITU data. Fiber-to-the-home and 5G fixed wireless are expanding household reach, helping operators lift broadband penetration, reduce churn, and bundle services that support a richer revenue mix.

Regional mosaics: divergent trajectories in the U.S., Europe, China, and India

Not all telecom markets are created equal. In the U.S., three nationwide players are leaning on 5G leadership to push fixed wireless access and premium plans, while cable–mobile convergence intensifies competition in home broadband. China’s scale advantage—anchored by national champions—supports rapid 5G deployment and industrial use cases, though monetization is weighted to enterprise solutions and platforms rather than pure consumer ARPU expansion.

Europe’s market remains fragmented and heavily regulated, with multi-player competition and stringent consumer protections keeping pricing in check. The OECD’s Communications Outlook highlights how policy choices shape investment incentives and market structure across member countries, with implications for consolidation and fiber/5G rollout pace, industry reports show. India presents a contrasting story: a consolidated market post-price wars, rapid 5G rollout by Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel, and recovering ARPUs from a low base—driving volume-led growth even as affordability remains central to strategy.

Investment cycle, consolidation, and the 2028 outlook

After a multi-year build cycle, operator capex is normalizing, shifting from broad coverage to capacity, densification, and monetization. Over 2023–2030, mobile operators are expected to invest roughly $1.5 trillion globally, with the lion’s share directed to 5G, according to the GSMA’s Mobile Economy. That spend underpins market size resilience as networks add spectrum, upgrade core architectures, and extend fiber backbones to sustain traffic growth and enterprise-grade performance.

Strategy is pivoting from “build” to “sweat the assets.” Expect more emphasis on network-sharing, tower carve-outs, and selective M&A to improve returns on invested capital—particularly in Europe, where regulatory approvals are increasingly framed around infrastructure competition and consumer welfare. Meanwhile, private 5G, edge partnerships with hyperscalers, and industry vertical solutions are moving from pilots to scaled deployments, harnessing 5G SA cores, slicing, and deterministic latency to open new service lines.

What it means for market size and value creation

Put together, the telecoms market should maintain its substantial scale through 2028, with low-single-digit revenue growth driven by high-speed access, enterprise services, and premium mobile tiers offsetting legacy declines. Data growth remains a powerful tailwind—reinforced by 5G adoption, fiber densification, and cloud/app workloads migrating to the edge—even if headline pricing remains under pressure in some markets, data from analysts suggests. Operators that can translate traffic into differentiated service value—through QoS guarantees, security, and integrated platforms—are best positioned to expand their share of wallet.

For investors and partners, the sector’s investment-grade cash flows remain attractive, but value creation will hinge on disciplined capex, smarter go-to-market in enterprise, and pragmatic consolidation where regulators allow it. The headline market size is not the constraint; execution—on monetization, cost transformation, and capital rotation—will determine who captures the next leg of growth.