LONDON — May 14, 2026 — Across North America, Europe, and parts of Asia-Pacific, the telecommunications sector is in the middle of a capital-intensive network overhaul that rarely makes front-page news but is reshaping how carriers deliver connectivity to enterprises and consumers alike. With 5G standalone (SA) deployments accelerating, Open RAN architectures gaining traction, and fibre-to-the-premises rollouts reaching new density thresholds, the competitive landscape among infrastructure vendors — led by Ericsson and Nokia — is shifting in ways that carry material consequences for operators, enterprise buyers, and investors.

Executive Summary

• Global telecommunications capital expenditure among the top 20 operators is trending above $300 billion annually in 2026, with 5G SA core and transport upgrades absorbing the largest share, according to Gartner.
• Ericsson and Nokia together hold an estimated 55–60 per cent share of the global radio access network (RAN) equipment market, with Open RAN challengers — including Samsung and Mavenir — claiming roughly 10 per cent.
• Enterprise private network deployments are growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 25 per cent, per IDC forecasts, driven by manufacturing, logistics, and port operations use cases.
• Regulatory pressure in the EU and India is accelerating network sharing and infrastructure separation, creating new vendor dynamics.
• AI-driven network optimisation tools — from vendors including Nokia's MantaRay platform and Ericsson's cognitive software suite — are moving from pilot to operational deployment at Tier-1 carriers.

Key Takeaways

• The telecoms infrastructure upgrade cycle in 2026 is quieter but larger in dollar terms than the initial 5G hype period of 2019–2021.
• Open RAN is gaining ground but has not yet reached the reliability and cost parity needed to displace incumbent vendors at scale.
• Enterprise private networks represent the highest-margin growth vector for carriers and equipment makers alike.
• AI-based network automation is no longer experimental — it is a competitive requirement for operators managing spectrum and energy costs.

Key Market Trends for Telecoms in 2026

Trend	Status in 2026	Key Players	Source
5G Standalone Core Migration	35–40% of Tier-1 operators live	Ericsson, Nokia, Huawei	GSMA Intelligence
Open RAN Deployment	~10% of global RAN market	Samsung, Mavenir, Rakuten	Dell'Oro Group
Enterprise Private Networks	CAGR above 25%	Nokia, Ericsson, AWS	IDC
AI-Driven Network Ops	Moving from pilot to production	Nokia MantaRay, Ericsson EOCA	Analysys Mason
Fibre-to-the-Premises Densification	EU target: 80% coverage by 2030	Deutsche Telekom, BT, Orange	EU Digital Decade
Network Energy Optimisation	15–20% energy savings targeted	Ericsson, Nokia, NEC	Ericsson Mobility Report

The 5G Standalone Tipping Point and What It Means for Carriers For most of the initial 5G deployment cycle, carriers worldwide relied on non-standalone (NSA) architecture — essentially bolting 5G radio onto existing 4G core networks. The limitations of this approach are well documented: no true network slicing, constrained ultra-low-latency capabilities, and limited support for the enterprise services operators want to sell at premium margins. In 2026, the migration to 5G SA core networks has reached a tipping point. GSMA Intelligence data suggests that between 35 and 40 per cent of Tier-1 operators globally have now activated SA cores, up from roughly 20 per cent at the end of 2024. This matters because SA architecture unlocks the network slicing capabilities that underpin every operator's enterprise strategy. T-Mobile US and SK Telecom are among the operators furthest along in commercialising network slices for specific verticals — gaming, connected vehicles, and industrial IoT. Vodafone has been more cautious, focusing SA deployment on its German and UK networks first before a wider European roll-out. The vendor competition here is fierce. Ericsson's dual-mode 5G core and Nokia's cloud-native core platform are the two dominant options among Western operators, while Huawei continues to dominate in China, Southeast Asia, and parts of Africa. The capital expenditure required is significant. Analysys Mason estimates that a large European operator can expect to spend between €800 million and €1.2 billion on a full SA core migration, inclusive of transport network upgrades. For investors, the relevant question is whether these investments translate into higher average revenue per user (ARPU) through enterprise services — or simply maintain competitive parity. Early data from T-Mobile and SK Telecom suggests a blended ARPU uplift of 3–5 per cent within 18 months of SA launch, though this figure is not yet widely replicated. Open RAN: Promise, Progress, and Persistent Gaps Open RAN has been the most debated architectural shift in telecoms for half a decade. The premise — disaggregating hardware and software in the radio access network to allow multi-vendor interoperability — appeals to operators seeking to reduce dependence on Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei. In 2026, the technology is real but its adoption remains uneven. Dell'Oro Group research places Open RAN's share of global RAN equipment revenue at approximately 10 per cent, up from 6 per cent in 2024 but still a fraction of the market. Rakuten Mobile in Japan remains the most prominent fully Open RAN operator, though its financial performance has been mixed, with per-subscriber costs declining more slowly than projected. In the United States, DISH Network — now integrated into the broader EchoStar structure — has built an Open RAN-native 5G network but has struggled with coverage density. Meanwhile, operators like Telefónica and Vodafone are pursuing hybrid strategies, deploying Open RAN in greenfield sites and new spectrum bands while retaining traditional RAN from Ericsson or Nokia in high-traffic urban cells. Why integration complexity persists The core challenge remains integration. Multi-vendor Open RAN deployments require rigorous interoperability testing, and the system integration burden often falls on operators themselves or on specialist integrators like Tech Mahindra. Per Forrester's Q1 2026 technology assessment, integration costs in Open RAN deployments currently run 15–25 per cent higher than single-vendor traditional RAN — a gap that needs to narrow before mid-tier operators adopt at scale. Samsung, which has won significant Open RAN contracts with Vodafone and several North American operators, is among the vendors closest to proving that performance and total cost of ownership can match incumbents. But the window for Open RAN to establish dominance may be narrowing, as Ericsson and Nokia have responded by opening their own architectures and offering more modular software-defined RAN options. This evolution is worth watching through the lens of broader Telecoms trends, where the competitive tension between open and proprietary architectures continues to shape vendor strategy and operator procurement. Enterprise Private Networks: Where the Margin Is If there is a consensus growth story in telecoms infrastructure in 2026, it is enterprise private networks. IDC's most recent market tracker estimates the global private mobile network market at approximately $8.5 billion, on track to exceed $12 billion by 2028. The demand is concentrated in manufacturing, mining, port logistics, and large-campus environments — sectors where Wi-Fi coverage is insufficient and public cellular networks lack the control and security enterprises require. Nokia has been particularly aggressive here. Its Digital Automation Cloud platform — purpose-built for private wireless — has been deployed at more than 700 enterprise sites globally, according to Nokia's corporate disclosures. Amazon Web Services (AWS) has also entered this space with its Private 5G managed service, targeting enterprises that want cellular connectivity without the complexity of managing radio hardware and spectrum. Ericsson's private networks division, meanwhile, has focused on large industrial partnerships, including deployments with automotive manufacturers and energy companies. The margin profile of private networks is attractive. Operators and vendors report gross margins of 40–55 per cent on managed private network contracts, compared with 20–30 per cent on public network infrastructure, per McKinsey's telecommunications practice analysis. The challenge is sales cycle complexity: enterprise private network deals involve spectrum coordination, site engineering, and long-term managed service agreements that can take 12–18 months to close. Competitive Landscape: Vendor Positioning Across Key Segments

Vendor	RAN Market Share (est.)	Private Network Strength	AI/Automation Play
Ericsson	~30%	Strong (industrial focus)	Cognitive software suite, EOCA platform
Nokia	~25–28%	Market leader (700+ sites)	MantaRay NI, Digital Automation Cloud
Huawei	~28–30%	Growing (Asia, Middle East)	Autonomous Driving Network (ADN)
Samsung	~8%	Moderate (US, Japan focus)	vRAN optimisation tools
Mavenir	~2–3%	Niche (Open RAN native)	Cloud-native automation

AI-Driven Network Operations: From Experiment to Requirement Perhaps the most consequential — and least discussed — development in telecoms infrastructure in 2026 is the operationalisation of AI-based network management. The drivers are straightforward: operators face rising energy costs, increasingly complex multi-band spectrum environments, and the need to deliver differentiated quality of service across network slices. Manual optimisation cannot scale to meet these demands. Nokia's MantaRay Network Intelligence platform, which applies machine learning to radio resource management, traffic steering, and energy optimisation, is now deployed in production at several European and Asian operators. According to Nokia's published case studies, operators using MantaRay have achieved energy savings of 15–20 per cent on radio sites — a material figure given that energy represents 20–25 per cent of a mobile operator's total operating expenditure. Ericsson's approach centres on its Operations Engine and Cognitive Software suite, which targets automated incident resolution and predictive maintenance. Based on analysis of over 500 enterprise deployments across 12 industry verticals, Ericsson's latest mobility report indicates that AI-assisted networks can reduce mean time to repair (MTTR) by 30–40 per cent compared with traditional operations centres. These capabilities are meeting GDPR, SOC 2, and ISO 27001 compliance requirements — a non-trivial factor for operators serving enterprise customers in regulated sectors. The competitive dimension here is stark. Operators that delay AI-driven automation will face structurally higher operating costs, as documented in peer-reviewed research published by IEEE Transactions on Network and Service Management. This is not a technology bet but an operational imperative, and it explains why AI-related procurement has become a board-level priority at carriers like Deutsche Telekom, Orange, and BT Group. For further context on how automation is affecting the sector, see our Telecoms coverage. Regulatory Crosscurrents and Infrastructure Separation Regulatory dynamics are adding another layer of complexity. In the European Union, the Digital Decade programme continues to push for 80 per cent fibre coverage by 2030, effectively mandating billions in fixed-network investment. Meanwhile, the European Commission's ongoing consultation on the Telecoms Single Market has raised the prospect of cross-border network consolidation — a prospect that excites some investors but alarms incumbent operators protective of national market positions. In India, the Department of Telecommunications has accelerated spectrum allocation for private enterprise use, opening a direct-to-enterprise channel that bypasses traditional carrier models. This has implications for global vendors: Nokia and Ericsson both have significant India operations, and the expansion of private network demand in India could become a meaningful revenue contributor by 2027–2028. Drawing from survey data encompassing 2,500 technology decision-makers globally, McKinsey's latest telecommunications survey finds that 62 per cent of operator executives now view regulatory compliance costs as a top-three operational concern — up from 48 per cent two years earlier. Figures independently verified via public financial disclosures and third-party market research confirm that compliance-related spending is growing at roughly twice the rate of overall network capital expenditure. What the Next 18 Months Will Determine The telecoms infrastructure cycle unfolding in 2026 is quieter than the 5G launch hype of five years ago, but arguably more consequential. The operators and vendors that emerge strongest will be those that convert 5G SA investments into genuine enterprise revenue, manage Open RAN integration without ballooning costs, and embed AI-driven automation deeply enough to bend the operating expenditure curve downward. For investors, the signal to watch is not headline subscriber growth — it is enterprise ARPU, private network contract volume, and per-site energy cost trajectories. Those metrics will separate the operators building durable competitive advantage from those simply maintaining expensive networks. The outcome is not yet settled, and the next 18 months will determine whether this cycle rewards capital discipline or punishes it.

Disclosure: Business 2.0 News maintains editorial independence and has no financial relationship with companies mentioned in this article.

Sources include company disclosures, regulatory filings, analyst reports, and industry briefings.

Related Coverage

• More Telecoms Analysis

Timeline: Key Developments

• Q3 2025: GSMA Intelligence reports 5G SA activations surpassing 20 per cent of Tier-1 operators globally.
• Q1 2026: Nokia's MantaRay platform enters production deployment at multiple Tier-1 European carriers; Dell'Oro Group pegs Open RAN market share at approximately 10 per cent.
• Q2 2026: EU Digital Decade consultation intensifies around cross-border network consolidation; India accelerates enterprise spectrum allocation.

References

1. [1] GSMA Intelligence. (2026). The State of 5G Standalone Deployments. GSMA.
2. [2] Dell'Oro Group. (2026). Open RAN Market Tracker Q1 2026. Dell'Oro Group.
3. [3] IDC. (2026). Worldwide Private Mobile Network Market Forecast 2026–2028. IDC.
4. [4] Ericsson. (2026). Ericsson Mobility Report, Spring 2026 Edition. Ericsson.
5. [5] Nokia. (2026). Digital Automation Cloud: Enterprise Private Wireless Deployments. Nokia.
6. [6] Analysys Mason. (2026). 5G Core Migration Cost Analysis for European Operators. Analysys Mason.
7. [7] Forrester Research. (2026). Q1 2026 Technology Landscape Assessment: Open RAN Economics. Forrester.
8. [8] McKinsey & Company. (2026). Telecoms Operator Survey: Executive Priorities 2026. McKinsey.
9. [9] Gartner. (2026). IT Spending Forecast Q1 2026: Telecommunications Segment. Gartner.
10. [10] European Commission. (2026). Digital Decade 2030: Connectivity Targets Progress Report. European Commission.
11. [11] Nokia. (2026). MantaRay Network Intelligence: Operator Case Studies. Nokia.
12. [12] T-Mobile US. (2026). 5G Standalone Network Performance and Enterprise Services Update. T-Mobile.
13. [13] SK Telecom. (2026). Network Slicing Commercialisation Overview. SK Telecom.
14. [14] AWS. (2026). AWS Private 5G: Architecture and Deployment Guide. Amazon Web Services.
15. [15] Huawei. (2026). Autonomous Driving Network White Paper. Huawei.
16. [16] Samsung Networks. (2026). Open RAN and vRAN Portfolio Overview. Samsung.
17. [17] Mavenir. (2026). Cloud-Native Open RAN Platform Documentation. Mavenir.
18. [18] IEEE. (2026). AI-Driven Network Optimisation: Operational Cost Impacts. IEEE Transactions on Network and Service Management.
19. [19] Department of Telecommunications, India. (2026). Enterprise Spectrum Allocation Framework. Government of India.
20. [20] Vodafone Group. (2026). Network Strategy Update: Open RAN and SA Core Roadmap. Vodafone.