Why Tesla and SpaceX Could Treat Rare Earths and Critical Minerals as Strategic Infrastructure
Elon Musk's companies face unprecedented materials exposure. As competitors and defense primes secure upstream supply, vertical integration into critical minerals may become a strategic imperative—not a distraction.
Intelligence Brief: The Materials Imperative
| Dimension | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Strategic Impact | Tesla and SpaceX face concentrated materials risk that rivals Apple and defense primes have already begun addressing through supply chain investments |
| Key Materials | Neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper, gallium |
| Concentration Risk | China controls 60% rare earth mining, 90% processing, and 92% permanent magnet production |
| Precedent Players | Apple, BMW, GM, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman have all made upstream investments |
| Timeline | 18-36 months for meaningful offtake agreements; 5-10 years for processing capacity |
For physical AI, the upstream constraint is not compute—it is the materials layer of the Physical AI Stack. This thesis is explored in depth in our analysis of AI's Next Bottleneck Is Physical, Not Computational.
Tesla and SpaceX sit at the apex of this constraint. Their products demand rare earth permanent magnets, advanced battery chemistries, and specialty alloys at scales that dwarf most industrial competitors. Yet neither company has publicly secured the upstream supply relationships that their risk profile demands.
This analysis examines why that may change.
Section 1: What Minerals Actually Matter
The materials conversation often conflates rare earths with critical minerals. Precision matters.
Rare Earth Permanent Magnets
Tesla motors and SpaceX actuators rely on neodymium-iron-boron (NdFeB) magnets—the strongest permanent magnets commercially available. These magnets require:
| Element | Function | Supply Risk |
|---|---|---|
| Neodymium (Nd) | Primary magnetic strength | High (China 85%) |
| Praseodymium (Pr) | Magnetic enhancement | High (China 85%) |
| Dysprosium (Dy) | High-temperature stability | Critical (China 99%) |
| Terbium (Tb) | Temperature coefficient | Critical (China 99%) |
Without dysprosium, NdFeB magnets degrade above 150°C—rendering them unsuitable for EV motors and aerospace applications.
Critical Minerals Beyond Rare Earths
| Mineral | Application | Primary Producer | Concentration |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | Battery cathodes | Australia/Chile | 75% combined |
| Cobalt | Battery stability | DRC | 70% |
| Nickel | Energy density | Indonesia | 50% |
| Copper | ...